Hector Bellerin: In Decline?

It's May 2015, and a 20 year old Hector Bellerin had just won his first FA Cup in his breakout season with Arsenal. It seemed the club had a star on their hands, someone who could nail down the right back spot for the next decade, and had the potential to be one of the best in his position. However, 5 years on, it seems Bellerin has faded into mediocrity, with many Arsenal fans now on his back after images of him smoking recently surfaced, demanding an 'upgrade' in the right back slot, or for Ainsley Maitland-Niles to be installed there going forward. So where has it gone wrong for Bellerin at the Gunners?

First, let's actually consider whether it has gone wrong for Bellerin. He is seemingly the first choice option for Mikel Arteta at right back, though the signing of Cedric Soares and recent performances of Ainsley Maitland-Niles gives the Spaniard plenty of competition. Since the restart, Bellerin's performances have been impressive, especially defensively, averaging 3.02 tackles and interceptions per 90 in the Premier League. Notable performances included 4 tackles and interceptions against Norwich and Southampton, along with 2 tackles and an interception in a 14 min cameo in the 2-0 away win at Wolves. He also enjoyed a thrilling display in the FA Cup final against Chelsea, with 2 interceptions and a clearance, in a game which also saw him play a key role in the Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang's winner with a surging run forward, waltzing through the Chelsea midfield. The run was very reminiscent of several runs before, such as against Bayern Munich in 15/16 to assist Mesut Ozil or the runs to move defenders in the team goals against Fulham and Leicester in 18/19.

However, it does appear that the right back has declined on the attacking front. At his best in 16/17, his key passes per 90 in the Premier League stood at 1.01, and has declined year upon year, being as low as 0.14 in 19/20 prior to the lockdown. Post the restart, Bellerin's key passes averaged at 0.34 per 90, still the lowest number he's achieved in the Premier League since his debut in 14/15. This could be attributed to Mikel Arteta's insistence on fixing up the defence since he replaced Unai Emery in December, but we haven't seen a noticable upturn in Bellerin's defensive numbers across the same period. It may also be worth taking note of Bellerin's recent ACL injury which may have affected his confidence and maybe his ability permanently.

In comparison, Ainsley Maitland-Niles has put up 0.8 key passes per 90 across the entire 19/20 season, as well as 2.4 tackles per 90 (double that of Bellerin) and is 5th in the league for interceptions per 90 from a right back at 1.8. The Englishman at 22 years old is 3 years younger than Bellerin and purely from the stats appears to be the obvious choice going forward. However, Maitland-Niles has been notably vocal about his desire to play in central midfield, where he lies far down the pecking order, and so it may be wise to cash in on him whilst his performances have been good and he seemingly wants to leave the club. Arsenal may live to regret letting such a versatile player leave but if it helps to restructure the squad in Arteta's image, which seemingly appears to have Bellerin at right back, then it may be worth it. There's no doubt that Hector Bellerin is nowhere near his best, but he can still add a lot to the Arsenal squad, both as a player and a leader, and hopefully Arteta can coach him back to the standards we've expected from him.

Stats from WhoScored.com and Understat.com